Are you an Aikido expert?

The most common risk strategy appears to be free of cost.

No, not strategies like avoiding, containing or mitigation. I mean evading as a strategy. Evading is easy. Just worry about a risk and don’t do anything about it. That’s it, piece of cake.

You might worry that;

  • your best testers leaving during the project, but they don’t.
  • the hardware will be late but it isn’t.
  • users will not like the performance (or GUI, new features), but they don’t complain.

Lucky you, you have not found out to be wrong.

Applying this strategy doesn’t mean you should face a firing squad. We all apply this strategy once in a while. But evading as your only strategy…hmmm….let’s do some math.

You have a list with 20 risks, each one has a low probability of hitting you, say 5%. The chance that at least one of them will hit you is nearly 65%. That is, one minus the 20th power of 0.95. That’s worth talking about during a project meeting.

As a 7th-dan black belt in Aikido, Steven Seagal is an expert on evading risks. He is……most of us are not.


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